आजकल रूस के यूक्रेन पर आक्रमण की वजह से ग्लोबल मार्केट में कच्चे तेल (ब्रेंट क्रूड) के दाम आज गुरुवार को 115 डॉलर प्रति बैरल को पार कर गए। ऐसे में आने वाले दिनों में भारत में पेट्रोल-डीजल की कीमत 20-25 रुपए और बढ़ना तय है। इसके साथ ही पांच राज्यों में चुनावी खुमार डूबे लोगों को होश में आने में देर नहीं लगेगी। गौरतलब है कि पिछले 120 दिनों से देश में पेट्रोल-डीजल की कीमतों में कोई बढ़ोत्तरी नहीं की गई है। जबकि कच्चे तेल की कीमत करीब 70% बढ़ चुकी है।
भारत में पेट्रोल-डीजल की कीमतों और चुनावी मोहलत का ट्रेंड बताता है कि मोदी सरकार विधानसभा चुनावों से ठीक पहले पेट्रोल-डीजल की कीमतों में बढ़ोतरी से बचती रही है। हालांकि चुनाव खत्म होते ही वह कीमतों को बढ़ाने में देर नहीं करती है। पिछले चुनाव इसके गवाह हैं। पांच राज्यों में विधानसभा चुनाव के नतीजे 10 मार्च को आएंगे। इसी वजह से अगले हफ्ते से दाम बढ़ने के अनुमान लगाए जा रहे हैं। हालांकि पेट्रोल-डीजल के दामों में बढ़ोतरी एक बार में न होकर, रोज थोड़ी-थोड़ी होगी।
विशेषज्ञों के अनुसार अंतरराष्ट्रीय बाजार में कच्चे तेल की कीमत 115 डॉलर प्रति बैरल को पार कर गई है। वहीं तेल कंपनियों ने बीते 3 नवंबर से पेट्रोल की कीमतों में कोई बदलाव नहीं किया है, लेकिन तब से लेकर अब तक कच्चा तेल 40 डॉलर प्रति बैरल से ज्यादा महंगा हो चुका है। इसलिए पेट्रोल-डीजल की कीमतों में 20-25 रुपए तक की बढ़ोतरी हो सकती है।
उनका कहना है कि कच्चा तेल 1 डॉलर प्रति बैरल महंगा होने पर देश में पेट्रोल-डीजल के दाम औसतन 55-60 पैसे प्रति लीटर बढ़ जाते हैं। एमसीएक्स पर क्रूड ऑयल का मार्च वायदा आज गुरुवार को 4% से ज्यादा बढ़कर 8600 रुपए (करीब 113 डॉलर) प्रति बैरल को पार कर गया। क्रूड 8495 (112.21 डॉलर) पर खुला और इसने 8677 रुपए (114.62) का हाई बनाया। दिसंबर 2021 में क्रूड का औसत मूल्य 73 डॉलर के करीब था, तब तेल कंपनियों को 8-10 रुपए प्रति लीटर का अतिरिक्त मुनाफा हो रहा था।
कच्चे तेल के दाम बढ़ने से सार्वजनिक क्षेत्र की तेल कंपनियों- इंडियन ऑयल कॉरपोरेशन, भारत पेट्रोलियम और हिंदुस्तान पेट्रोलियम को पेट्रोल-डीजल पर 5-6 रुपए प्रति लीटर का घाटा उठाना पड़ रहा है। क्रूड के दाम लगातार बढ़ने से कंपनियों का घाटा भी लगातार बढ़ रहा है। एक्सपर्ट क्रूड ऑयल के 150 डॉलर तक पहुंचने का अनुमान लगा रहे हैं।
24 फरवरी 2022 को यूक्रेन पर रूस के आक्रमण के तुरंत बाद दुनियाभर के शेयर बाजार धराशायी हो गए, सोने की कीमतें बढ़ गई और क्रूड ऑयल रिकॉर्ड लेवल पर पहुंच गया। रूस ऑयल और नेचुरल गैस का बड़ा उत्पादक है। 2020 में रूस क्रूड ऑयल और नेचुरल गैस कंडेनसेट के उत्पादन के मामले में दूसरे नंबर पर था।इस दौरान रूस ने प्रति दिन 10.1 मिलियन बैरल का उत्पादन किया। रूस इसमें से आधे तेल का इस्तेमाल अपनी जरूरतों को पूरा करने के लिए करता है और प्रतिदिन 50 लाख से 60 लाख बैरल एक्सपोर्ट करता है। यूक्रेन पर आक्रमण की वजह से रूस पर कई पाबंदियां लगाई है। इससे क्रूड सप्लाई प्रभावित हो सकती है। इन्हीं आशंकाओं के चलते क्रूड हर दिन महंगाई का नया रिकॉर्ड बना रहा है।
क्रूड ऑयल की 85% से ज्यादा आपूर्ति के लिए भारत अन्य देशों पर निर्भर है। रूस के तेल एक्सपोर्ट का लगभग आधा- करीब 25 लाख बैरल प्रतिदिन – जर्मनी, इटली, नीदरलैंड, पोलैंड, फिनलैंड, लिथुआनिया, ग्रीस, रोमानिया और बुल्गारिया सहित यूरोपीय देशों को भेजा जाता है। हालांकि भारत काफी कम तेल रूस से इंपोर्ट करता है। 2021 में भारत ने रूस से प्रति दिन 43,400 बैरल तेल का इंपोर्ट किया। ये भारत के तेल इंपोर्ट का केवल 1% है। रूस पर लगी पाबंदियों की वजह से भारत की तेल सप्लाई तो ज्यादा प्रभावित नहीं होगी, लेकिन क्रूड के दाम बढ़ने का सीधा असर होगा। अगर मोदी सरकार दाम बढ़ाने के बाद एक्साइज ड्यूटी में कटौती नहीं करती है तो महंगाई बेकाबू हो सकती है। अभी ऑयल कंपनियां अंतरराष्ट्रीय मार्केट में कच्चे तेल की कीमत, एक्सचेंज रेट, टैक्स, पेट्रोल-डीजल के ट्रांसपोर्टेशन का खर्च और बाकी कई चीजों के मद्देनजर रोजाना पेट्रोल-डीजल की कीमत तय करती हैं।
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